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Is Inflation Coming...Or Already Here?

Despite historically low interest rates for quite some time, inflation, for a large part, has been non-existent. Reasons for this scenario vary, however, I believe companies such as Amazon and others have brought massive efficiencies and competition to act of consuming goods. Therefore, suppliers, who would like to raise prices to keep margins constant, can't. Rather, they must innovate or lose market share to those who can. Just a thought though...


Moving onto the news of the day. The Fed, originally motivated by an ambition to keep inflation around 2% a year, is now convinced 2% may no be enough. Perhaps this reasoning may be front-running inflation that is bound to come as the money supply has skyrocketed in response to the Corona virus. Specifically, the U.S. money supply has rose 20% from the end of 2019 (i.e. $15.33 Trillion to $18.3 Trillion).


The price of Gold and Silver tends to suggest some are bracing for the ravages of inflation; Gold is up nearly 35% YTD while Silver is up over 50%.


How to invest during periods of inflation is a tricky topic; hard to predict exactly. However, cash is generally not a good place to be.


Then again, some predict, if the new money does not move at a decent velocity through the economy via buy/sell transactions over and over again, the increase in the money supply may have little to no effect on inflation. As the new money, may just sit in an account somewhere and contribute to the supply/demand inputs that impact inflation rate.


Overall, hard to say, so wait-and-see approach is warranted. Inflation will be a factor to consider moving forward.






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